昨天 Fred Wilson（佛瑞德·威爾森）發表了一篇談論錯過 Airbnb 的精彩文章。創投錯過優秀的新創公司是常有的事，但直到很久以後還願意公開談論此事的人卻極為罕見。因此，那篇文章進一步證明了佛瑞德·威爾森是多麼難得的人物。他大概是我認識最友善的創投了。

讀了佛瑞德·威爾森的文章後，我回去翻看了當時為了說服他投資 Airbnb 而與他往來的電子郵件。讀起來相當有意思。你可以看到佛瑞德·威爾森在反覆斟酌這筆交易時，思緒是如何運作的。

佛瑞德·威爾森與 Airbnb 的創辦人們已慷慨同意讓我公開這段電子郵件往來（其中一句關於對 Airbnb 具有策略重要性、但與對話重點無關的內容已刪除）。這段往來有趣地呈現了新創生態系中，除了當事人之外很少人能見到的一面：投資人試圖說服彼此投資自己已投資的公司。像這樣的對話現在正有數百甚至數千場同時進行，但如果曾有任何一場被公開，我還沒見過。而 Airbnb 團隊當時甚至從未看過這些郵件。

我們在 YC 做了很多這類檯面下的工作，因為我們投資的公司數量非常龐大，而且投資階段非常早，有時投資人需要花很多力氣說服才會看見這些公司的價值。不過，我倒也不是每次都這麼努力。佛瑞德·威爾森一定覺得我很煩。

from: Paul Graham
to: Fred Wilson, AirBedAndBreakfast Founders
date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 11:42 AM
subject: meet the airbeds

One of the startups from the batch that just started, AirbedAndBreakfast,
is in NYC right now meeting their users.  (NYC is their biggest
market.) I'd recommend meeting them if your schedule allows.

I'd been thinking to myself that though these guys were going to
do really well, I should introduce them to angels, because VCs would
never go for it.  But then I thought maybe I should give you more
credit.  You'll certainly like meeting them.  Be sure to ask about
how they funded themselves with breakfast cereal.

There's no reason this couldn't be as big as Ebay.  And this team
is the right one to do it.

--pg



from: Brian Chesky
to: Paul Graham
cc: Nathan Blecharczyk, Joe Gebbia
date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 11:40 AM
subject: Re: meet the airbeds

PG,

Thanks for the intro!

Brian



from: Paul Graham
to: Brian Chesky
cc: Nathan Blecharczyk, Joe Gebbia
date: Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM
subject: Re: meet the airbeds

It's a longshot, at this stage, but if there was any VC who'd get
you guys, it would be Fred.  He is the least suburban-golf-playing
VC I know.

He likes to observe startups for a while before acting, so don't
be bummed if he seems ambivalent.

--pg



from: Fred Wilson
to: Paul Graham,
date: Sun, Jan 25, 2009 at 5:28 PM
subject: Re: meet the airbeds

Thanks Paul

We are having a bit of a debate inside our partnership about the
airbed concept. We'll finish that debate tomorrow in our weekly
meeting and get back to you with our thoughts

Thanks

Fred



from: Paul Graham
to: Fred Wilson
date: Sun, Jan 25, 2009 at 10:48 PM
subject: Re: meet the airbeds

I'd recommend having the debate after meeting them instead of before.
We had big doubts about this idea, but they vanished on meeting the
guys.



from: Fred Wilson
to: Paul Graham
date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 11:08 AM
subject: RE: meet the airbeds

We are still very suspect of this idea but will take a meeting as
you suggest

Thanks

fred



from: Fred Wilson
to: Paul Graham, AirBedAndBreakfast Founders
date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 11:09 AM
subject: RE: meet the airbeds

Airbed team -

Are you still in NYC?

We'd like to meet if you are

Thanks

fred



from: Paul Graham
to: Fred Wilson
date: Mon, Jan 26, 2009 at 1:42 PM
subject: Re: meet the airbeds

Ideas can morph.  Practically every really big startup could say,
five years later, "believe it or not, we started out doing ___."
It just seemed a very good sign to me that these guys were actually
on the ground in NYC hunting down (and understanding) their users.
On top of several previous good signs.

--pg



from: Fred Wilson
to: Paul Graham
date: Sun, Feb 1, 2009 at 7:15 AM
subject: Re: meet the airbeds

It's interesting

Our two junior team members were enthusiastic

The three "old guys" didn't get it



from: Paul Graham
to: Fred Wilson
date: Mon, Feb 9, 2009 at 5:58 PM
subject: airbnb

The Airbeds just won the first poll among all the YC startups in
their batch by a landslide.  In the past this has not been a 100%
indicator of success (if only anything were) but much better than
random.

--pg



from: Fred Wilson
to: Paul Graham
date: Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 5:29 PM
subject: Re: airbnb

I met them today

They have an interesting business

I'm just not sure how big it's going to be

fred



from: Paul Graham
to: Fred Wilson
date: Sat, Feb 14, 2009 at 9:50 AM
subject: Re: airbnb

Did they explain the long-term goal of being the market in accommodation
the way eBay is in stuff?  That seems like it would be huge.  Hotels
now are like airlines in the 1970s before they figured out how to
increase their load factors.



from: Fred Wilson
to: Paul Graham
date: Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 2:05 PM
subject: Re: airbnb

They did but I am not sure I buy that

ABNB reminds me of Etsy in that it facilitates real commerce in a
marketplace model directly between two people

So I think it can scale all the way to the bed and breakfast market

But I am not sure they can take on the hotel market

I could be wrong

But even so, if you include short term room rental, second home
rental, bed and breakfast, and other similar classes of accommodations,
you get to a pretty big opportunity

fred



from: Paul Graham
to: Fred Wilson
date: Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 12:21 AM
subject: Re: airbnb

So invest in them!  They're very capital efficient.  They would
make an investor's money go a long way.

It's also counter-cyclical.  They just arrived back from NYC, and
when I asked them what was the most significant thing they'd observed,
it was how many of their users actually needed to do these rentals
to pay their rents.

--pg



from: Fred Wilson
to: Paul Graham
date: Wed, Feb 18, 2009 at 2:21 AM
subject: Re: airbnb

There's a lot to like

I've done a few things, like intro it to my friends at Foundry who
were investors in Service Metrics and understand this model

I am also talking to my friend Mark Pincus who had an idea like
this a few years ago.

So we are working on it

Thanks for the lead

Fred



from: Paul Graham
to: Fred Wilson
date: Fri, Feb 20, 2009 at 10:00 PM
subject: airbnb already spreading to pros

I know you're skeptical they'll ever get hotels, but there's a
continuum between private sofas and hotel rooms, and they just moved
one step further along it.

[link to an airbnb user]

This is after only a few months.  I bet you they will get hotels
eventually.  It will start with small ones.  Just wait till all the
10-room pensiones in Rome discover this site.  And once it spreads to
hotels, where is the point (in size of chain) at which it stops?
Once something becomes a big marketplace, you ignore it at your
peril.

--pg



from: Fred Wilson
to: Paul Graham
date: Sat, Feb 21, 2009 at 4:26 AM
subject: Re: airbnb already spreading to pros

That's true. It's also true that there are quite a few marketplaces
out there that serve this same market

If you look at many of the people who list at ABNB, they list
elsewhere too

I am not negative on this one, I am interested, but we are still
in the gathering data phase.

fred